With indications that the Bola Tinubu 71-year-old may begin rolling back some of the dramatic policy initiatives that once enthralled the markets.
Nigerian stocks and Eurobonds are currently taking a break from Bola Tinubu’s explosive start to life as president. For the second day in a row, the stock market ended lower on Wednesday, and the nation’s sovereign Eurobonds had the worst performance in emerging market credit.
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According to BusinessDay’s study of NGX data, investors reduced their daily trading of Nigerian equities from an average of N11.8 billion in June to an average of N5 billion in August. This is a decrease in investor confidence of more than 100% since Tinubu’s swift reforms, such as the liberalization of foreign exchange markets and the elimination of fuel subsidies, increased optimism about the nation’s economic prospects.
Nigeria’s Eurobonds have similarly gone from being the best in the world to being huge losers. The government’s dollar-denominated bonds are now falling once more after rising throughout June.
On Wednesday, eight Nigerian bonds were among the 20 poorest performers internationally according to Bloomberg’s EM Sovereign Total Return Index. The price of notes due in September 2033 fell 1.1 cents to $75.19, the lowest price since June. For 10 of the last 13 days, the value of the 2033 bonds has decreased. Concerns about Tinubu slowing down or perhaps reversing some of his policy measures, including the expensive fuel subsidies he abolished in June, have prompted a new sell-off in Nigerian stocks and Eurobonds.
After the product’s landing cost, which is currently N651.75 per liter and has surpassed the average retail price of N617 per liter, Tinubu declared that the government will halt further hikes in petrol prices. Since the risky decision to float the currency in June, the exchange rate, which is a major determinant in determining the price of gasoline, has declined substantially, but in the past week, it has been under even more pressure.Some sources claim that Nigeria’s experiment with establishing a petrol price regime based on consumers paying for the fuel they use is coming to an end, if only briefly.
Some claim it is proof that President Bola Tinubu’s new administration either underestimated or overestimated the effects of allowing the Naira to float. A source said, “It is a humiliating policy reversal for the new president. “On the day of his inauguration, Tinubu quietly declared the end of the gasoline subsidy. A few days later, the national oil corporation, NNPCL, issued new gasoline pricing for Nigeria’s major cities.
With the business’s CEO, Mele Kyari, stating, “We have the marketing wing of our company,” the same NNPCL increased the price of gasoline on July 18.”They modify prices in response to market conditions. This is actually what is going on; this is what it means to ensure that the market controls itself so that prices will rise and occasionally fall as well. This is what we’ve observed, and this is actually how the market operates, he said.
Though the NNPCL was compelled to say it will not be raising petrol prices despite the adjustment in the Naira to dollar exchange rate as well as the rise in international crude prices, which would have brought petrol pump prices to close to N1,000 a liter in some cities in the country, Kyari was forced to eat his own words on Monday. The acting governor of the Central Bank was observed leaving the president’s home after meeting with him on Monday. The president had been under intense pressure to take action over the Naira exchange rate. This was the first indication that there was danger for the government.
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